Experts interviewed by France 24 regarding the massive US military deployment off Iran, and the movements carried out by the US army in countries in the region, agreed that Washington waging a war against the Islamic Republic does not serve its interests, although they did not rule out the occurrence of specific and secret attacks by commando forces that were originally deployed within the same military crowds. Among the possible attacks mentioned were sabotage or kidnapping of political or military leaders or scholars, in conjunction and coordination with any strike, similar to what happened in Venezuela.

Published on: 02/20/2026 - 12:33 Last updated: 02/20/2026 - 13:04

The United States continues to enhance its military deployment in the Gulf waters. This was particularly embodied in a huge military naval force, which was mobilized in anticipation of carrying out Trump's threats to strike Iran if the two sides did not reach an agreement during their talks.

The diplomatic track continues in parallel with the continuing military threats. The US Army mobilizes more units in the region and redeploys others.

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Before the talks, Trump warned Tehran of the consequences of not reaching an agreement, and repeatedly hinted at the possibility of military intervention against it, whether against the backdrop of the bloody campaign against protesters, or because of its nuclear and missile programs.

Washington deploys massive military reinforcements near Iran

In this context, Dr. explained. Tawfiq Jabali, a lecturer in American civilization at the University of Cannes in France, said that among the American reinforcements sent were “the largest aircraft carrier in the world [USS Gerald R. Ford - editor’s note] and an important air fleet that includes the latest models such as the F-35, F-22, F-16 and F-15. These are enormous capabilities that Washington has placed in the region in anticipation of the outbreak of war or a military strike against Iran.”

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The United States sent two aircraft carriers to the region, one of which has been stationed since Sunday, the USS Abraham Lincoln, which carries about 80 F-35 and F-18 aircraft, about 700 kilometers from the Iranian coast, according to satellite images, while Trump confirmed that the Gerald Ford will sail “very soon” towards the region.

For his part, the Jordanian military and strategic expert and political analyst, Omar Al-Raddad, pointed out that the American deployment near Iran “now numbers about 300 warplanes of various models, most notably the F-35 stealth, in addition to B-2 bombers and electronic jamming aircraft, also supported by large systems of air defense missiles, most notably the Patriot and THAAD.”

Also, Washington is working to strengthen its forces in areas close to Iran, which has pledged to respond to any attack by targeting American military sites in the region.

In Qatar, analysis of satellite images showed that US forces at Al Udeid base, the largest in the Middle East, had placed missiles in mobile launchers. The decision to place the Patriot missiles in mobile trucks rather than semi-fixed launchers means that tensions and thus risks are exacerbated, and it allows the launchers to be quickly deployed for attack or to be moved to defense in the event of an Iranian attack.

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In Syria, American media reported that Washington plans to withdraw all of its forces, numbering about a thousand soldiers, within two months.

Omar Al-Raddad also pointed out that the American forces in the region have about 40,000 soldiers distributed among about 19 military bases, most of them in the Gulf states and Iraq.

On the other hand, Iran also threatens to respond by targeting the American fleet stationed off its coast and targeting American interests in the region.

On Monday, the Revolutionary Guards began maneuvers in the Strait of Hormuz, according to what Iranian state television reported, indicating that they aim to prepare to confront “possible security and military threats” in the strategic strait to maritime traffic, especially the transit of oil and liquefied natural gas.

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The Iranian ambassador to the United Nations said: “If Iran is exposed to military aggression, it will respond decisively and proportionately in accordance with the principles of self-defense stipulated in Article 51 of the United Nations Charter.” Amir Saeed Irani added: “Under similar circumstances, all US bases, infrastructure and assets in the region are considered legitimate targets.”

Is Iran capable of responding and threatening American interests?

Dr. is not excluded. Tawfiq Jabali said this, despite his indication that the capabilities of the Islamic Republic have become weak due to the recent American-Israeli strikes, and the resulting destruction of Iranian air defense capabilities. The expert explained: “Iran does not have military aviation that could be effective to strike Israeli and American military capabilities in the region. Hence, it remains the only naval forces capable of posing a specific threat to the American army, along with drones and ballistic missiles. It can be said that American aircraft carriers and warships are within Iran’s range.”

Moreover, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned that his country is capable of sinking the American aircraft carrier that is sailing hundreds of kilometers from the coast of his country.

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Regarding the military capabilities that Iran possesses and that could constitute a spearhead in achieving such a threat raised by Iranian leaders, the professor of American civilization pointed out that it “possesses more than 2,000 ballistic missiles and thousands of drones that could somewhat threaten American military capabilities in the region.” He added that Iran's fleet of warplanes "is limited to about 300 to 350 old-fashioned fighters, such as the F-4, Sukhoi 24, and MiG-29, which are ineffective in modern battles." According to Jabali, the number of the Iranian army is estimated at about 350,000 ground units, in addition to militias that number between 170 and 190,000 individuals, which are "strongly trained ideological forces capable of thwarting any American ground operation inside Iranian territory.

Also, according to Jabali, Iran could strike American military bases in “Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan, which will be among the biggest losers if war breaks out.” But he said that the American build-up is just a threat game to force Iran to concede more on the nuclear program.

Jabali pointed out another issue beyond the issue of the American presence and the threat of launching a strike against Iran, which is the possibility of Israel launching a new strike aimed at forcing the Iranians to “define the range of ballistic missiles to within 300 kilometers so that they do not reach them.” Pointing out that the problem of the Israelis is not the Iranian nuclear, as much as it is the specter of drones and ballistic missiles.

How likely is a US strike on Iran and what type?

Trump on Wednesday renewed his threats to carry out strikes against Iran. He warned Britain against abandoning the Chagos Islands in the Indian Ocean, noting that the Diego Garcia Air Base located in this archipelago may be necessary “in order to eliminate a possible attack from a very volatile and dangerous regime.” He admitted his concern about "an attack that could be launched against the United Kingdom, as well as other friendly countries."

On Thursday, the US President gave Iran a maximum of 15 days to conclude a “meaningful deal” in the discussions or face “bad things,” as he put it.

However, military and strategic expert Omar Al-Raddad suggested that Trump in particular would seek "to achieve two paths: maximum pressure on Iran to extract unprecedented concessions in the negotiations and threatening the military option and its extreme seriousness on the one hand, and sending final ultimatums to Iran in which America confirms that it is in a position to put the finger on the trigger on the other hand."

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Al-Raddad believes that the goal behind this huge military buildup is not only to launch a strike, but rather that it “undoubtedly serves Trump’s goals in the region. It reinforces the principle of peace by force, constitutes a serious threatening message to opponents, and reassurance to allies.” Adding that this "translates the principle of the diplomatic hammer adopted by Trump. This means that there is not necessarily an actual use of weapons, but they remain on the negotiating tables, and may pave the way for achieving greater goals with minimal losses."

For his part, Dr. said: Tawfiq Jabali said that any “American military operation, even if it does not overthrow the regime in Iran, will weaken it and push a section of Iranians to challenge and confront it,” as was embodied in the demonstrations that were suppressed.

For reference, Washington will be ready to launch strikes against Iran as of the end of this week, although Trump has not yet made a final decision, according to what American media reported on Wednesday.

Regarding the type of strike that Washington might launch, the professor of American civilization said, “The possibility of ground intervention being small, but the deployment of hundreds of commando forces trained in sabotage or kidnapping of leaders, politicians, soldiers, or scholars,” suggests the possibility of launching coordinated secret operations in conjunction with any strike, similar to what happened in Venezuela, with objective differences related to the nature of each country, its system, and the size of its power.

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