Oil prices witnessed a significant rise in global markets on Monday, while the price of gas jumped by more than 50 percent in Europe as the American-Israeli attack on Iran continued and the war expanded to countries in the Middle East and the Arabian Gulf. Global energy markets fear the repercussions of this attack on shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic passage through which about 20% of the quantities of oil consumed daily pass.

Published on: 02/03/2026 - 15:24 Last updated: 02/03/2026 - 16:11

Amid concerns about the supply of energy resources, oil and gas prices recorded a sharp rise on Monday, while the war in the Middle East continues after the American-Israeli attack that began on Iran.

The price of gas in Europe rose by more than 50% on Monday, after Qatar Energy Company announced the suspension of liquefied natural gas production following an Iranian attack on its production facilities.

Read also Follow the latest developments regarding the war in the Middle East via this direct link

At approximately 12.55 GMT, the TTF futures contract, which represents the European reference, rose by more than 48% to reach 47.32 euros per megawatt hour. This is its highest level since February 2025 when it reached 47.70 euros per megawatt hour.

But this price is still much lower than the levels reached in 2022 with the beginning of the war in Ukraine, when it exceeded 300 euros.

At approximately 08:45 GMT, the price of a barrel of Brent North Sea oil rose by 8.66% to record $79.18, after it had reached $82.37 in the same trading session. This is a significant increase from the price of $61 at which the year began.

Read also: What are the most important American military bases in the Middle East?

In turn, the price of a barrel of US West Texas Intermediate crude rose by 8.01% to reach $72.39.

Global energy markets fear the repercussions of the US-Israeli attack on Iran, which began on Saturday, and Tehran’s response to it by launching missiles and drones towards the Hebrew state and several countries in the region, on shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic passage through which about 20% of the quantities of oil consumed daily.

In the face of the huge increase in insurance premiums, major shipping companies announced the suspension of their flights through the strait, which effectively led to an almost complete cessation of shipping traffic.

In theory, oil-importing countries keep large quantities of crude in reserve. Member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development must maintain stocks sufficient to last 90 days.

The Eurasia Research Group warned that “in the event of a long-term interruption in supplies through Hormuz, the price of a barrel of crude oil could quickly rise to $100 (...), especially if attacks occur on oil facilities in the region.”

Increasing production "is not a solution"

The last time crude oil prices exceeded the $100 per barrel threshold dates back to the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The rise in oil and gas prices at the time caused a prolonged inflation cycle.

In light of the escalation of violence in the Gulf and the Middle East over the past few days, eight countries in the OPEC Plus alliance decided on Sunday, most notably Saudi Arabia and Russia, to increase oil production by 206 thousand barrels per day. This increase exceeded analysts' expectations.

Analyst Jorge Leon believed that the amount of increased production would not prevent the rise in oil prices, considering that it was “a signal and not a solution... If oil is no longer able to pass through Hormuz, 206 thousand barrels per day will not play a major role in calming the markets.”

The war in the region raises fears of causing damage to energy infrastructure, as the list of the ten largest oil and gas producing countries in the world includes many countries in the region.

The Saudi Ministry of Energy announced on Monday the suspension of “some operational units” at the Ras Tanura refinery on the Gulf coast “as a precaution” after it was targeted and a fire broke out in a two-UAS attack.

The ministry said in a statement, "Some operational units in the refinery were stopped as a precaution, without affecting the supply of oil and its derivatives to the local markets."

The refinery belongs to Saudi Aramco.

He also fears that China will be affected by a long-term disruption in imports of Iranian oil, of which Beijing is one of the largest consumers, in light of the Western sanctions imposed on it.

Iranian pressure card

Michelle Prohar, an analyst at Kpler, believes that the rise in oil prices will not be in the interest of US President Donald Trump, considering that Tehran may seek to keep the cost of energy resources high to pressure Washington a few months before the US midterm elections.

Gas prices in Europe also recorded a significant increase on Monday, given that a fifth of global trade in liquefied natural gas also passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and Qatar is one of its largest exporters.

The prices of the Dutch TTF contract for natural gas, which is considered a reference in Europe, rose to 40,375 euros, an increase of approximately 25 percent, even though it had reached higher levels earlier.

This remains lower than at the height of winter in January.

Despite the remarkable rise in prices, Oxford Economics analysts rule out the occurrence of “serious and sustainable unrest” unless the conflict is prolonged.

Analysts believed that prolonging the war "will force Iran to maintain an unprecedented naval blockade, while at the same time defending against a military response."

France 24/AFP

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