The Gulf countries are living in a very difficult situation as a result of the war imposed on them in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, following the American-Israeli attack on Iran. Tehran targeted a number of sites in the countries of the region, and the UAE was the most affected, which prompted analysts to say that these countries may join America in this war by “forming an expanded coalition against Iran.” Will that happen?

Published on: 03/03/2026 - 22:00 Last updated: 03/03/2026 - 22:15

The Gulf states may find themselves forced to join a military alliance with the United States and expand the scope of the war against Iran, after attacks targeted ports, cities and oil facilities in a vital region for energy production, according to what observers expect.

Analysts explained that Tehran, by targeting the economic lifelines of the Gulf states in response to the American and Israeli air strikes on Iran, may push the Gulf states to rapprochement with Washington and take coordinated measures against the Islamic Republic.

They added that the goal of the strikes against six Gulf countries, all of which are allies of the United States and host American military bases, is to make those countries put pressure on US President Donald Trump to stop the war, but it appears that Iran made a mistake in its calculations.

Read also: Live - Macron: The United States and Israel launched military operations outside international law, and Iran bears the primary responsibility

The Gulf countries have two options

Abdulaziz bin Saqr, head of the Gulf Research Center in Saudi Arabia, told Reuters, “The Gulf states now face difficult choices: either more openly join the United States in its war efforts, allow the use of its airspace and territory, and potentially participate in military operations, or risk further escalation on their soil.”

He added that the option of neutrality disappeared when the Iranian missiles began landing and "forced us to be their enemies," which prompted countries that were taking a conservative stance to explicitly side with Washington and prepare to defend their lands and interests.

Iran launched a barrage of missiles after the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Saturday, which was the first day of US and Israeli military strikes, which Trump said were aimed at preventing any security threat to the United States and stopping Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

The Gulf Cooperation Council held an emergency ministerial meeting on Sunday, based on Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, setting “red lines,” and affirming its readiness for collective self-defense with the increasing energy disturbances and security risks.

The Gulf Cooperation Council's message to Tehran was clear: Iran's attacks contributed to strengthening unity among the Gulf states.

The GCC states said that continued strikes could transform the Gulf from a defensive shield into an active arena for response, and activated joint air defense systems and reconnaissance flights throughout the regional airspace.

Analysts say that the choice is difficult: either respond and risk a broader war, or wait and accept the undermining of security, economic stability, and international prestige in light of the repeated attacks.

Gulf officials comment that Tehran has received messages directly and indirectly warning that launching more attacks will lead to much greater consequences for the Islamic Republic.

An informed source in the Gulf added, “In practice, they will try to wait as long as possible. The Americans and Israelis are attacking them.”

He also highlighted that it is not clear who is managing events in Iran, and whether the strikes on oil facilities are issued by central orders or carried out by rogue units. He said that the current conditions suggest one of two scenarios: either that the leadership is divided and there are units operating in isolation from each other, or that decisions are still being coordinated at the highest levels.

Serious risks include oil, navigation and markets

The risks are not limited to the Gulf region only, but extend to oil exports, shipping lanes, energy infrastructure, and a vital energy corridor, which has repercussions on global trade and markets.

Global energy markets are facing one of the most serious shocks they have witnessed in decades. The missile threats led to the closure of some Gulf energy facilities that provide about 20 percent of global supplies, including liquefied natural gas facilities in Qatar, and revealed the impact of this on energy markets.

Read also: Why is Iran turning Dubai, the “oasis of prosperity and stability” in the Emirates, into a “battlefield”?

Ibtisam Al Ketbi, head of the Emirates Policy Center, told Reuters, “If the strikes continue at this pace, and the Gulf cannot tolerate a long-term conflict, or oil shipping lanes are disrupted, or the Strait of Hormuz is closed, it is natural for other countries to intervene because global interests will be directly affected.”

Mohammed Bahroun, Director-General of the Public Policy Research Center in Dubai, said that the logic of expanding the alliance against Iran was reinforced by the UAE’s description of Iranian attacks as acts of terrorism.

Bahroun added, "Iran is pushing the Gulf to form an expanded alliance against it... by attacking the Gulf states... and risks the outbreak of a broader war that no one wants."

The UAE bore the brunt of Iran's attacks, as 63 percent of the strikes targeted its airports, ports, and oil infrastructure.

Officials estimate that 165 ballistic and cruise missiles, along with 600 drones, were launched in the first 48 hours of the war.

The missiles, which bombed places in Doha, Dubai and Manama at the weekend, targeted the image of the Gulf states as prosperous financial, investment and tourism centers, damaging their reputation as safe and stable havens.

Although the UAE was keen to avoid all-out war, it moved quickly through diplomatic channels, recalling Iran's ambassador, withdrawing its envoy, closing its embassy in Tehran, and pressing the issue in the UN Security Council.

Gulf officials said that Iran has completely changed the diplomatic landscape by launching ballistic missiles and drones on such a large scale.

The officials added that Tehran's actions make it difficult in any future negotiations with the United States to deal with Iran's missile program in isolation from the nuclear file, an opinion they say is unanimous among its Sunni Arab neighbors in the Gulf and Western governments.

France 24/Reuters

Keywords related to the article

The content you want to browse is no longer in service or is currently unavailable.