It appears that the Islamic Republic of Iran, targeted by a dual Israeli-American military attack since Saturday, is focusing its responses and strikes on the Arab Gulf states in general, and on the United Arab Emirates in particular. Since Saturday, the city of Dubai has been exposed to Iranian missiles and drones on an almost daily basis. Read the scene with analyst Karim Sader.

Published on: 03/03/2026 - 17:14 Last updated: 03/03/2026 - 19:59

The sound of violent explosions continues to be heard in Dubai, the largest city in the United Arab Emirates, for the fourth day in a row, as Iran continues to bomb its Gulf neighbors who have been dragged into the conflict against their will, in response to the American-Israeli strikes targeting its territory. The UAE tops the list of countries targeted by Tehran, as Iranian strikes killed 3 people and injured 58 others, according to the UAE Ministry of Defense.

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Although Tehran has confirmed that it is targeting American military sites in the region, scenes of smoke columns rising above skyscrapers and luxury hotels in Dubai, a giant city with nearly 4 million people, in addition to the damage to UAE airports, are at the forefront of video scenes widely circulated on social media.

According to Karim Sader, an analyst and specialist in Gulf states affairs, the UAE constitutes a “very important target” - as it alone was targeted by about 137 missiles and 209 drones on Saturday alone - even though it does not include major “direct American interests,” unlike Saudi Arabia or Bahrain, whose bases are based on the US Fifth Fleet, or Qatar, which hosts Al Udeid Air Base, the largest in the region.

A "legitimate target" for Tehran

Sader continues: “In addition to the UAE being an accessible target for the Iranians, which allows them to demonstrate their ability to cause harm in a region closely linked to the Gulf economy, the UAE is also a signatory to the Abraham Accords, and has normalized its relations with Israel. This is what makes it, from Tehran’s point of view, a completely legitimate target.”

The UAE signed the Abraham Accords during the first term of current US President Donald Trump in 2020, and has since worked to strengthen its relations with the Hebrew state by establishing strong economic ties and increasing security and defense cooperation, reaching the point of joint military maneuvers, as happened in the Red Sea in 2024. Under the leadership of President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the UAE is the signatory state that has made further strides in rapprochement with Israel.

Sader adds: "While the UAE chose to remain extremely silent during the Gaza war, and tried as much as possible to remain politically low-key despite the atrocities that shook Arab and international public opinion, the Iranian strikes come to expose this policy, which wanted itself to appear the most neutral."

In his opinion, the current conflict and the Iranian response impose “a radical change in the landscape for the Emirates, which was presented as an embodiment of economic globalization and a strategic center between Asia, the Middle East and the West, and includes a large community of foreign residents. As for Dubai in particular, that oasis that symbolizes prosperity, stability and luxury, today it has turned into a war zone.”

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He continues: "From an Iranian perspective, attacking Dubai has a much greater impact on the global economy and public opinion, compared to targeting one of the Saudi islands that does not have this symbolic presence on the global level."

Moreover, Karim Sader believes that the Islamic Republic hopes that “the disastrous economic consequences of its response throughout the Gulf, and in particular on the UAE,” will create a “pressure tool” that will push the monarchies in the region to exert pressure on its American ally.

Sader adds: “With the escalation of attacks against the Gulf states, the features of a diplomatic solution to the crisis are becoming clearer, based on pressure exerted by these monarchies on both the United States and Israel together. By targeting Washington’s ally in Abu Dhabi, Iran seeks to push Mohammed bin Zayed to play a role in curbing the escalation against the Islamic Republic.”

The American security umbrella is in question

Sader believes that the Gulf states today face “that nightmare scenario that they have feared for several decades, that is, a direct Iranian response targeting their own lands.”

The United States, which provided a security umbrella for these countries through its direct military deployment, widespread bases, and massive arms contracts, was unable to prevent Iran from launching simultaneous strikes on most of the oil kingdoms on the banks of the Gulf.

Sader explains, "The American umbrella strategy appears to be a failure on two levels: firstly, on the individual level, as the Gulf states, by virtue of their proximity to the United States and their close alliance with it, are turning into favorite targets for Tehran. Secondly, on the collective level, because the Gulf Cooperation Council, which was originally established to confront the Iranian threat, has so far been unable to formulate a unified regional position, in light of the differing national agendas, and Iran's exploitation of these divisions."

Until now, none of the Gulf states have taken the initiative to respond militarily to the missile and drone attacks, leaving the initiative to Washington and Tel Aviv. Sader comments, saying: “The UAE, like its neighbors, is not prepared for this type of war, and it is the biggest loser in any logic of military escalation, and this explains Tehran’s insistence on continuing to target it.”

Sader recalls that UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed has sought over the past years to fortify strategic facilities in his country. “The UAE has its own defense industry, and has operational capabilities that are among the most advanced in the Gulf, in addition to a network of military bases in the region.”

However, this approach, as Sader explains, “was not directed exclusively at dealing with an Iranian external threat, but rather stemmed from a more comprehensive vision for managing security risks, from combating terrorism to dealing with cyberattacks.” However, Karim Sader concludes, “The latest Iranian strikes came to undermine this strategy and reveal its limits.”

French text: Marc Daou | Arabic text: Hussein Amara

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