The trading volume in the prediction market has surged, giving rise to exclusive brokerage business. River Finance, a subsidiary of River Markets, has completed registration as a CFTC futures commission merchant and joined the NFA, which will provide institutional clients with a single account and fund management service across exchanges. (Previous summary: Polymarket applied for margin trading in the United States, igniting the war on leveraged contracts in the prediction market) (Background supplement: Pantera partner: The prediction market is no longer a "betting game", but a core financial asset class) The popularity of the prediction market continues to grow, and now it has spawned a specialized brokerage business. River Markets announced that its subsidiary River Finance LLC has completed registration as a futures commission merchant (FCM) with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), joined the National Futures Association (NFA), and obtained the qualification to hold customer accounts and handle customer funds on behalf of customers. What River Markets wants to do is to create a “prime brokerage” platform specifically for prediction markets. The company's goal is to allow institutional traders to manage funds, positions and risks across multiple exchanges and clearing houses through a single account. In the future, it also plans to support financing arrangements and approved over-the-counter transactions (OTC) to centrally manage positions and margins scattered across various platforms. Oscar Levy, co-founder and CEO of River Markets, said the team has first-hand observation of the demand after speaking with institutional clients who are entering the market. He emphasized that it is not enough to be able to trade event contracts. "Institutions need to use funds more efficiently and manage risks around the clock between exchanges. This is exactly the brokerage model we want to create." The company's customer profile also illustrates the changes in the market. River Markets was established in May this year. Its services include hedge funds, sports funds, proprietary trading companies and event risk hedging institutions. The company pointed out that it has routed more than 250 million contracts on the platform and received support from "top venture capital" after completing a seed round of US$8.5 million in August. What supports this business is the rapid expansion of the prediction market. The combined trading volume of Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket International platforms exceeded US$500 billion in October. This volume is enough to support the brokerage, settlement, financing and risk management needs that only appeared in the derivatives market in the past. It also gives the roles of securities dealers, clearing companies and prime brokers room to survive. River Markets isn't the only one seeing opportunity. In March this year, Kalshi's affiliated company Kinetic Markets obtained NFA approval to become an FCM and currency exchanger; in July, Polymarket's affiliated enterprise also applied for FCM and currency exchanger registration through the NFA channel; in October, Blockchain.com applied for a designated contract market (DCM) license and FCM registration; on November 5, Hyperliquid Strategies submitted an application to become an FCM and required HIP-3 The perpetual contract market is brought to US customers with a compliance framework. Timeline for prediction market players to apply for and complete CFTC license registration in 2026 (self-drawn by the dynamic zone) From "Betting Platform" to "Regulated Brokerage" Prediction markets used to be regarded as a tool for retail investors to bet, but now a complete institutional service chain has grown, and the key lies in capital efficiency. For institutions, whether they can borrow money to open positions and whether they can manage positions and margins scattered across multiple platforms in one place determines whether an event contract is a "toy" or a "configurable asset class." This is why, in addition to trading, the roles of settlement, financing and prime brokers will appear one after another. Looking at the recent actions together, this infrastructure is being rapidly completed: Gemini has obtained the CFTC derivatives settlement license, Kalshi has cooperated with BitGo to open crypto-asset mortgage lending, and Hyperliquid has brought perpetual contracts into the prediction market. Now, coupled with River Markets’ FCM registration, each of the four links of trading, settlement, financing, and prime brokerage has its own space, replicating the mature structure of the traditional derivatives market. Follow-up Observations First, getting an FCM license is just the ticket. What really determines success or failure is when River Markets’ financing and over-the-counter trading functions will be implemented, and how it will divide work with the existing self-operated clearing systems of Kalshi and Polymarket; if institutional funds cannot be actually remitted, the brokerage license will only be a cost. Second, supervision remains the biggest variable. The jurisdictional dispute between the CFTC and various states over prediction markets has not yet ended, and the CFTC’s recent intention to crack down on Kalshi for failing to declare new products in compliance with regulations shows that this compliance path is not a smooth road. Companies rushing to obtain licenses are, to some extent, preparing for uncertain rules in advance. Related reports Gemini Expansion! Gemini obtains the CFTC "derivatives settlement" license and joins the battle between futures and prediction markets. Kalshi joins hands with BitGo to open crypto asset-backed loans! BTC, ETH can be exchanged for perpetual futures margin. Perpetual contracts enter the prediction market: Hyperliquid launches HIP-4’s ambitions and challenges This article was first published in BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain news media.